20 weeks – 27 October 2012 4


There are times when there is so much to say about what is happening in the markets that I don’t know where to start. This is not one of those times!

It has been 20 weeks since the 40-week trough formed in the stock markets in June this year, and so we are expecting the 20-week cycle trough to form right about now. As discussed previously I am expecting a bounce out of the 20-week cycle trough of course, but I believe it will be a bounce with distinctly bearish overtones.

Last week I wrote about how various markets have been interacting with the 20-day FLD, inspired by the announcement of our FLD Trading Strategy (registration for the training course is now open). And as we are expecting a 20-week trough to form in the stock markets I thought it would be informative to look at the 20-week FLD today.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 found support on the 20-week FLD this week:

Hesitating on the 20-week FLD

The 20-week cycle trough is likely to form at this level, or somewhat lower, but not as low as would be expected from the target of the FLD cross which is around the 1350 level. When price crosses an FLD this late in the cycle it very rarely achieves the target generated by that cross.

Nasdaq

In contrast the Nasdaq has very accurately reached down to the target generated by the crossing of the 20-week FLD three weeks ago, indicating that the time is ripe for the 20-week cycle trough to form now.

Achieving the target

Euro/US Dollar

The Euro is beating to a different rhythm of course, and price is still far above the 20-week cycle FLD. But note how the upside target generated by the price cross of the 20-week FLD in early September has been achieved. This indicates that the current 20-week cycle has fulfilled its upward impetus. We have been basking in the 18-month cycle bounce, but it is time to pay close attention to the bearish underlying trend in the longer cycles for the Euro, as discussed previously.

No FLD worries here

Gold

Gold has been slipping steadily, leaving behind a lopsided 40-week peak on 5 October 2012. The 20-week FLD lies far ahead, and it is too soon to start watching for a price cross of the FLD, but FLD’s can also be used as an indication of what the cycle that the FLD is based upon will be doing to price in the future. When the FLD is rising the cycle will be pushing price down. You can see that the 20-week cycle is going to be pushing Gold down fairly hard until the end of the year.

Heading down

30 Year US Bonds

Bonds spent the week correcting some of the fall from the 80-day peak on 12 October 2012. Because of the recent dominance of the 40-day cycle the 20-week cycle FLD offers two chances over the next six weeks for price to cross over and head up towards the 20-week cycle peak expected early next year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the first interaction over the next two weeks provide resistance to price, with a clear break occurring in early December.

Two chances for a break

Crude Oil

Crude Oil is providing the syncopated beat. The position of the most recent 80-day cycle trough is still open to debate, but as mentioned last week the half-hearted bounce out of the early October trough tilts the odds back in favor of the analysis shown here:

Further to go

Price crossed cleanly below the 20-week FLD this week, generating a target of about $80. That bearish underlying trend discussed previously is doing its thing.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar bounced as expected out of the 40-day cycle trough identified last week on 18 October 2012. Note how the 20-week cycle FLD provided a good estimate for the position of the 20-week cycle trough, by forming a peak in early October (a peak which has been visible on the chart since the end of July).

The FLD estimates the trough

The above analysis shows why I am bearish the US Dollar in the medium term, because it is expected to turn down to the 54-month cycle trough expected early next year. But as the dollar rises out of the 20-week cycle trough formed in September we are of course bullish in the short term. I think it is important to play Devil’s Advocate and look at reasons why we might want to remain bullish, and there is a possible alternate analysis which is this:

Feeling bullish?

It is possible that the 54-month cycle trough has formed, and so there is some motivation to hold onto our bullish feelings about the dollar. Of course the unfolding price action will help us to know which analysis is the correct one.

On Monday our FLD Trading Strategy training course commences. Registration is open so if you would like to learn how to trade on the basis of this kind of analysis then register now. If you haven’t heard about the FLD Trading Strategy then read more about it here.

Have a good week, and profitable trading!


About David Hickson

I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.


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4 thoughts on “20 weeks – 27 October 2012

  • tom russo

    Observation, NASDAQ: 20 week FLD in late July itself formed a very bullish inverse head and shoulders and it has formed a very bearish head and shoulders going forward…

  • Royston

    Hi David,

    Medium term shouldn’t the dollar’s current bounce be stronger if the second analysis is in play and the 54 month trough has recently formed?

    (Like the rises out of the earlier 18 month and 20 week troughs, or does this not matter?)

    On a tangential note I used ST to look at very long term Dow data and (at least to me!) it shows 2 interesting aspects:

    a) Regardless of the 20’s/50’s/70’s bottoms chosen in the data (series from 1920s to present day) it regards the 2009 low as the 18/19 year trough and starts a new cycle.

    b) It consistently finds Martin Armstrong’s 8.6 year cycle.

    They would seem to relect planetary metonics rather well.

    Market forces appear to be battling to decide ’09 or ’13-’16 to come as the larger Kondratiev/Gann cycle 54/60yr low (repudiate/evaporate/inflate debt away even more, or massive deflationary crash still to come.)

    By default I believe the big D but my eyes as yet still say keep an open mind, darn it. Hang Seng, Dax, Ftse in particular would appear to be in critical future deciding zones.

    Would appreciate any thoughts you might have on these topics.

    Thanks,
    Royston

  • Jeffrey Young

    David,

    I was wondering for Corn, Wheat , and Soybeans would you use torughs or peaks for your analysis. I have experimented with both but I can’t seem to see a distinct advantage with either?

  • Jeffrey Young

    Looking at the US Dollar. If the 52 month trough has fomed wouldn’t we expect a much more significant move higher than we have currently seen? Even if this was just an 18 month cycle low I think we would have seen a bigger move out of this low than we have seen. Unless of course the Dollar is in for much more pain over the next several years and it will move much lower into it 9 year c I suppose that is entirely possible given the amount of money the US is throwing at this problem. I have an 80 day cycle low showing near the end of December which I think we will certainly know by then and even the next 20 day cycle low should give us a clue around the 2nd week of November. Just don’t like how we have come out of this low so far.