Monthly Archives: October 2014


A Spooky Halloween Thought 9

EDIT: This post has sparked a good deal of heated reaction by email. I should explain that this post is not presented in the spirit of being a market call or an absolute forecast. My analysis process is to consider all the possibilities, and to stir up some debate. I do believe that through discussion and […]

A 6-year cycle?

The 18-month cycle trough

18-Month or 40-Week? 4

I have spent a good deal of this week wondering whether we were bouncing out of a 40-week or 18-month cycle trough, and John’s post about the outstanding 9-year FLD projection and the discussion surrounding that prompted me to sit down and seriously consider the alternatives. First here is the analysis that I have been […]


$SPX 9 Year FLD Target of 2150? 15

In my July post I mentioned there is an outstanding 9 year FLD target for the $SPX. It stands at 2150. It seems hard to embrace this possibility but it may well be that the $SPX will be the last man standing when these markets finally set their tops. The interesting thing is that the […]

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The Cycle Jump

The Cycle Jump 2

Hurst’s Cycle Tools (the VTL and FLD) are very useful as analysis tools, helping us know when a trough or peak has formed in the market. And they are useful for trading, by providing entry and exit levels. But they are also clearly levels that have some significance to the market. By this I mean that […]


Peaks are rounded in stocks 3

One of the major lesson I have learned in recent years is patience, and this patience must be broad in two sense. First, patience for leaving patterns and wave shapes to manifest themselves. Hurst it self made some interesting approaches to traditional technical analysis and cycles, explaining, from the cycles perspective, some typical patterns like triangles […]

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4 Year Cyclical High 10

The indices had a significant 3rd quarter this year. According to Hurst’s bandpass filter analysis they have established the most recent 4 year cyclical high. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 showing the 4 year price wave dating back to 1990. It has clearly crested and is currently cycling down.   Here is […]


Turning Bearish 16

I like to look at a Hurst analysis from many different angles, and while considering the progression of “bullishness” in the US stock markets this week I stumbled across a possibility that I would love to hear your opinion about. It has bearish implications, and so this post carries a BEAR warning! But before we get […]

Back-and-forth across the VTL

Median price touching the VTL

The 18-month VTL

A few weeks ago I wrote about the 18-month VTL (Valid Trend Line) in the S&P 500. Yesterday price came down to the VTL and touched it. There are a few points worth mentioning here: If median price crosses below the VTL then we have cyclic evidence that the current 54-month cycle (or 4 & 1/2 […]


The G-category Interaction 7

I know I bang on a lot about the interaction between price and the FLD, so I will keep this short and sweet. Last week I wrote about the F-category interaction that happened in the S&P 500 between Monday 22 September and Tuesday 23 September 2014. Following an F-category interaction we expect a G-category interaction. When […]

A perfect G-category interaction