7 Year Cycle Update 8


Just wanted to pass along the 7 year cycle analysis as I see it evolving. What has changed recently is that the February low has been assigned as a 7 year low which suggest that price keeps moving higher over all from here. The 40 week low is expected near the end of October/Early November and then from there the composite line suggests we breakout to higher ground. Remember this is not fact, but possible action if cycle rhythms remain the same. This analysis also has the 3 higher cycles, the 14 month, 42 month, and 7 year cycles all moving higher which seems to restrict the shorter cycles form imposing any type of significant correction (this is happening). While we are all waiting for the world to end due to central bank intervention and what not the market has steadfastly move higher from the February lows to all time highs while most of us have been looking for a bearish disaster to unfold for a good portion of that run. Now I do not profess to know where the market is headed because nobody knows that but if we did just see a 7 year low then that would support the markets moving higher into the foreseeable future. Here’s what the picture looks like and my humble observation. The harsh moves of last summer followed by the move into the February low were probably a shortened bear market and if the composite is accurate (a big if) then a peak for what really amounts to a fairly new bull market is not expected until early 2018 which afterward suggests a nearly 70% sell off from those levels is possible. But that is getting too far ahead of ourselves and means nothing at this point. Now this current analysis suggests a rather quick low for the 80 day cycle that probably occurred on Friday or maybe Monday. It then suggests a weak retest of recent highs which should be the 40 week peak in the middle of September which should be followed by a sizable correction into the 40 week low into late October/early November that may not conclude until after the US election. Remember, this is only one man’s humble opinion and should only be used as guidance not as trading advice. If you want accurate answers then quiet your mind and stay quiet and in the present moment. If you know yourself then you will know what to do and when it is time to do it. Good luck. All comments, are welcome. David, thank you for providing this forum and for allowing me to share my analysis with you and others


About Jeffrey Young

I am a clinical neuropsychologist by day and trading enthusiast all the time. I was introduced to trading through the W.D. Gann and Ted Warren methodology. I have studied long and hard the time symmetry principles of Terry Laundry and was originally asked to step into Terry's shoes after his unfortunate passing in 2012. I have carried his torch (T Theory) forward with honor. It was Terry who first mentioned Hurst to me and I began incorporating Hurst cycles into the rest of my knowledge. I live in Albuquerque New Mexico and feel that my current spiritual journey has taught me more about myself and trading than any trading book ever has. Peace can only be found internally and it is fully necessary to understand oneself in order to be a successful trader. Let the journey begin!


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8 thoughts on “7 Year Cycle Update

  • Gary B.

    I agree, market will not go down without a fight and acceleration do the downside will not start until end of September. Meanwhile choppy market will make bulls and bears equally frustrated. While I believe the top for the year is probably already set, making money on the short side will require extreme patience. We should see another attempt to rally market in September, but so far it looks like market high is set and hold any advance. I monitor 3 Hurst models on daily, weekly and monthly time frames and at this time my monthly model contradicts other two , but this is beyond the time frame for November low. The strength in October decline will help me to sort-out which model is correct.

    • SilentOne

      Hi Jeffery,
      I’ve been giving Sentient Trader’s recent upgrades a test run here lately. This is a peak at the $SPX with both the combined peaks/troughs analysis and the composite line. My best model was used as the nominal model, not Hurst’s traditional cycle periods. We see an overall topping short term and whether it was already seen in August, or another test of the highs comes mid-September, the long side has pretty much been exhausted. I love these two new features because it gives very good clarity to the overall cycle trend. Looking further out, after a low this fall, we should see a very strong 2017, in what is likely to be a last hurrah. Then things start looking very iffy beyond that and we are likely to see lost of volatility inot the next 4 year cycle low. GLGT.
      cheers,
      john

    • SilentOne

      Notice the slight difference in the analysis. You’ve pinned the 20 week low to the Brexit low. I did not. The only trough I pinned in the above chart was the 4 year low in June 2012. The reason I did not pin the 20 week low and let ST place it is because out of a 7 year low, I would have expected the 20 week low to have come in May at 15 weeks or so, a slightly short cycle period. But like the subtle straddle in the Jan/Feb. lows, TWT where this one plays out best. GLGT.

      P.S. The above analysis uses data back to 1970 with an analysis start point of 1980.

      • karni

        Big thanks SilentOne, great analysis as always. Three waves from the February bottom point to ending diagonal for the last hurrah.
        Wave 1 ending in September and the obvious choice low for wave 2 of the ED and the 40 week cycle in November, but something feels wrong.
        I was scratching my head for a while, wave 1 7 months long and wave 2 only two months(October/November) unusually short and steep and on top of this unusually long 40 week cycle.
        But if you do not try to pinpoint 20/40 week cycle lows than pattern and cycles fit perfect – wave 2 4-5 months long and 18 month cycle low January/February 2017.
        Your idea feels better….. now curious to see if it will play out:)

  • ayman abu sara

    hello sir

    i am asking if you have like cds or on line courses explain the hurst cycle and how to use it from level zero up to proficiency

    thanks

  • Dtodd

    Jeffrey or John, do either of you have an update on your 7 year cycle? I am curious to know your thoughts on the current market action.
    Thanks!