Author Archives : SilentOne

About SilentOne

I am a retired Chemical Engineer. I became a house dad back in 2000 and then devoted all my free time to the markets. After years of technical analysis study I decided upon Hurst cycles, which has been my primary method since 2007.

Natural Gas (/NG and /QG) 7

In February this year I was studying a long swing trade for natural gas (/NG Henry Hub). Here is an email I shared with David Hickson and some others privately:   I would like your opinion on a trade I am studying. I know you will think it crazy to be looking at the natural […]



USD Index Long Term Cycles 13

One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles I am working with are […]

Gold Peak coming? 20

Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, I am surprised at its […]



$TSX Toronto Stock Exchange 3

I wrote about the $TSX in September as it broke the 40 week FLD. The TSX started its correction lower last fall before US markets, this on the back of a very weak energy sector. Despite oil’s recent bounce (/CL made a 45 week low late Jan.), the weakness in energy shares is likely to […]

US 30 Year Bonds

There is no doubt that the story for 2015 will be volatility. We are two full trading weeks into the year and we have: 1) Oil hitting new lows near $45, 2) The Swiss National Bank removing the Swiss Franc peg to the Euro, 3) $USB 30 Year Treasury bonds hitting new all time highs, […]

USB 30 YR Futures Monthly Peaks

SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_weekly_2014-11-05

The Next 18 Month Hurst Cycle 4

So here we are with new highs in the $SPX, $NDX, and the DOW. Even the $Nikkei has flashed new highs thanks to the BOJ’s aggressive QE announcement last week. Many world indices continue to lag though such as the $DAX and commodity heavy markets like the $TSX. It is easy to spot where the […]

$SPX 9 Year FLD Target of 2150? 15

In my July post I mentioned there is an outstanding 9 year FLD target for the $SPX. It stands at 2150. It seems hard to embrace this possibility but it may well be that the $SPX will be the last man standing when these markets finally set their tops. The interesting thing is that the […]


$TSX Toronto Stock Exchange

I think this is my first post looking at the $TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) for this blog site. The TSX is largely driven by commodity markets as energy and materials make up almost forty percent of the index weighting. This commodity weighting is down substantially from the highs achieved in 2011 as commodity markets have […]

$SPX Hurst Coming 40 Week Low 3

Markets continue to defy gravity and any and all predictions for a correction, a dip, a pullback etc. I misread the significance of the Feb. low (clearly an 18 month low) and now we watch for the formation of the coming 40 week low. I’ve been busy with other things so my market work has […]

SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_daily_2014-07-30

Hurst 10 week low due mid-April ...

$SPX 18 month Hurst cycle low 5

In January I suggested that we had seen a contracted 4.5 Hurst cycle in Nov. 2012 for the US markets (eg. $SPX) and that based on price action seen in the 70s and 80s, we should look for a straddle trough to form for the current 18 month cycle. I will defer first to the […]