Gold is always interesting to analyze for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the viewpoints of the participants are usually at polar extremes, the inflationary group that says gold is going to $5000/oz. and beyond, and the deflationary group which is forecasting sub $1000/oz. again. Secondly, gold has a very […]
William Randall
23 posts
One of the most enduring, if not the most enduring, trends in the financial markets has been the run of the 30 year US Treasury bond. From its low in September 1981, T-Bond have been on a relentless 35 year uptrend, almost linear in nature. The chart below is a monthly chart of […]
Now that the U.S. stock indices have gotten past the distortion in the charts caused by the fundamental interaction of the Brexit vote, they seem to be settling down back into their normal (?) cyclical patterns. The 4 year price wave has formed a low for the umpteenth time according […]
Every trader on the planet is well aware of the events of the last three trading days. An interesting point David espoused in his webinar today was the question as to what extent does a “fundamental interaction” affect the cyclical nature of the market. He felt that they are insignificant […]
There has been a lot of interesting discussion over the past several weeks concerning the cyclical state of the market. Most of the commentary has been based on what I refer to as the trough synchronized, simple harmonic relationship, time domain approach to cyclical analysis. I thought I would take […]
Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window […]
The last 12-18 months in the U.S. stock indices have been somewhat challenging for both the technical trader and the fundamental investor. The yearly chart of the S$P 500 below shows that 2015 was a rare down year. That chart also provides one with a great perspective of the intermediate […]
The S&P 500 seems to have weathered the frequency modulation that has plagued the index for the past several months from a spectral viewpoint. Below is a daily chart with the 40 day wave extracted at the bottom. The effect of the frequency modulation is clearly visible in the first […]
Over the last few weeks the S&P 500, on the surface, has the appearance of being somewhat difficult to analyze and trade. However, if one digs beneath the surface just slightly and brings along a firm understanding of cyclic principles as promulgated by Hurst, the picture is much clearer. […]
One of the more difficult aspects of cyclical analysis in my opinion is correctly dealing with price wave expansion or contraction in a timely manner. If one waits long enough the difficulty will usually resolve itself in an additional cycle. However if the price wave in question is of intermediate length, […]