ST Outlook – Gold


Waiting for Gold to form its peak! It has been taking its time in forming the peak discussed in last week’s update, which increases the chances that the shorter cycle analysis is not quite right, and we might need another 40-day cycle or two to play out before the peak is formed. But until we have clearer evidence for this, the analysis remains the same: GOLD is in the process of forming a peak of the 4 & 1/2 cycle, a peak which is expected to be sharp, followed by a quick fall in price (because we are working with an inverted analysis, and therefore an inverted principle of synchronicity).

GOLD Long Term

The long term picture shows that the current analysis has a staggered “nest-of-highs”, and that the 20-week and 40-week cycle peaks are only expected in about 8 weeks, although they could occur soon. This is why we must keep aware of the possibility that there might be more 40-day cycles that need to play out before the peak.

GOLD Current 40-day cycle

Here we can see that price did move up to a peak as forecast last week, and is now moving down toward a 40-day cycle trough. However the taking of short positions is not recommended just yet, because of that staggered “nest-of-highs”, indicating that although a peak of the 40-day cycle has formed, it might not be the expected synchronous peak of the 54-month cycle.

GOLD Important levels

Here we can see the important levels that would confirm the peak as more prominent than merely a peak of the 40-day cycle. The orange line is the median price, which would need to cross below approximately the 1800 level to confirm the peak of the longer cycles. If price fails to fall below this level in a convincing manner (as befits the “bounce” out of a 4 & 1/2 year peak) over the next two weeks, then we will expect further cycles to complete before the 4 & 1/2 year cycle peak is formed.


About David Hickson

I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.

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