ST Outlook – GOLD (28 September 2011)


In last week’s Gold update I said:

Because we are looking for the confirmation of such a very long cycle peak, I am going to watch with interest over the next two or three days and see how price interacts with that 80-day FLD.

And I explained that the Gold price could either cross neatly (at a roughly 90 degree angle) or it could “ride up” the FLD.

What did it do? On Wednesday 21 September (two days later) it crossed the FLD, but only just, and then on Thursday 22 September price moved down to create a nearly “textbook” FLD cross.

GOLD crosses the 80-day FLD

Note how price moved straight down to the 20-week FLD? When that happens it is a good indication that our analysis is sound. Price is now trapped in a gap pause zone between those two FLD’s, but it is expected of course to cross below the 20-week FLD as well, as each of the cycles up to at least the 18-month cycle confirm the peak formed on 6 September.

Here is a reminder of the long term picture:

Long term picture

Next week I will discuss whether the peak on 6 September 2011 was a peak of the 18-month cycle or of the 54-month cycle. Either way, the price of Gold is expected to drop for many months.


About David Hickson

I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.

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