Category Archives : Commodities & Metals

Analysis of commodities and metals

Gold Revisited

  Gold is always interesting to analyze for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the viewpoints of the participants are usually at polar extremes, the inflationary group that says gold is going to $5000/oz. and beyond, and the deflationary group which is forecasting sub $1000/oz. again. Secondly, gold has a very consistent spectral structure which makes it […]

GC ##-## (1 Week) 2017_05-20 week


Natural Gas (/NG and /QG) 7

In February this year I was studying a long swing trade for natural gas (/NG Henry Hub). Here is an email I shared with David Hickson and some others privately:   I would like your opinion on a trade I am studying. I know you will think it crazy to be looking at the natural […]


Gold Peak coming? 20

Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, I am surprised at its […]


Goldbugs 7

Gold probably generates more diverse opinions than any other financial instrument or commodity. The deflationists say gold is going down to $250 while the inflationists say gold is going to $5,000 and beyond. The price action paints a much simpler picture from the cyclical/spectral standpoint. The first chart below is a monthly chart showing what […]

Gold’s Secular High 2

Given gold’s recent price action, have we seen a secular peak for the metal? While I was not quite sure early in 2013, I don’t think there is any question in my mind today. The high seen in 2011 can be equated to the 1980 and 1947 highs, tops seen in secular commodity bull markets. […]

The 50-day Puzzle – 8 June 2013 3

Hurst’s Principle of Variation tells us to expect that cycle wavelengths vary from their average length, resulting in a dynamic and constantly changing cyclic model. Hurst never discussed by how much a cycle wavelength can vary, and there are times when we cannot say for certain what the magnitude of a particular trough is. There […]