Gold is always interesting to analyze for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the viewpoints of the participants are usually at polar extremes, the inflationary group that says gold is going to $5000/oz. and beyond, and the deflationary group which is forecasting sub $1000/oz. again. Secondly, gold has a very […]
Commodities & Metals
20 posts
In February this year I was studying a long swing trade for natural gas (/NG Henry Hub). Here is an email I shared with David Hickson and some others privately: I would like your opinion on a trade I am studying. I know you will think it crazy to […]
Note from author: Writing this article, I have never had in mind to show an exact development of US markets, but one of the possible scenarios. I use Technical Analysis as a tool to screen for risks and opportunities. Instead having thousands of possibilities, I narrow my pool of scenarios […]
Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, […]
Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window […]
Gold probably generates more diverse opinions than any other financial instrument or commodity. The deflationists say gold is going down to $250 while the inflationists say gold is going to $5,000 and beyond. The price action paints a much simpler picture from the cyclical/spectral standpoint. The first chart below is […]
Sometimes there seems to be so much to say about what is happening in the markets, and sometimes … well, there isn’t really. This is one of the latter times. Stock markets have been thrashing about a bit as they come to terms with the fact that the dominant cycle […]
Given gold’s recent price action, have we seen a secular peak for the metal? While I was not quite sure early in 2013, I don’t think there is any question in my mind today. The high seen in 2011 can be equated to the 1980 and 1947 highs, tops seen […]
Early this year I expected important turning points for precious metals. This was primarily based on a long term USD analysis. Precious metals have turned quite bearish in recent months suggesting long term secular tops have been seen in the metals. While this is still likely the case, a 4 […]
Hurst’s Principle of Variation tells us to expect that cycle wavelengths vary from their average length, resulting in a dynamic and constantly changing cyclic model. Hurst never discussed by how much a cycle wavelength can vary, and there are times when we cannot say for certain what the magnitude of […]