Category Archives : Forex Analysis

Analysis of the forex markets


USD Index Long Term Cycles 13

One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles I am working with are […]

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Counting bars

Yet More On The Euro 6

We have been discussing the Euro a great deal recently. I am expecting a long-term cycle trough to form, and I have mentioned in previous posts how I like to watch the shape of the first 40-day cycle following the formation of a potential trough for confirmation (or not) that it is the big trough we’re expecting. […]


EURUSD – addendum 7

I want to add a couple of comments about the long term picture to my prior post about the Euro. The chart below is a monthly chart of the EURUSD with the 18 month price wave and 4 year price wave. Except for the minor frequency modulation in the early 2000’s, the 18 month wave […]

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The Struggling Euro 10

I have been watching the Euro (see also this post) for signs that the big magnitude trough that I am expecting to form has occurred. In September 2014 I wrote about this trough, and mentioned the difficulty with the sub-division of the 54-month cycle. This makes it very difficult to be confident with a projection […]

A neutral cycle

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A Significant Cycle Trough Forming in AUD/USD 5

Utilizing a Sentient Trader organic analysis of the AUD/USD currency pair starting at the December 1996 high, it appears that the Aussie is headed down into a large cluster of cycle troughs, the largest of which is at least of the 18-month variety.  Inside that cluster of troughs, the 26.4 week cycle is expected now […]


Watching the Euro 3

In September I discussed reasons why I expected the Euro to turn up in November or December of this year. That time is upon us, and I am watching the Euro carefully to see whether it is going to manage a turn up. I presented various ideas about the magnitude of this trough in September, […]

The 40-week trough in November

The 9-year cycle in the S&P 500

The 9-Year Cycle 22

There is a moment that I love when analyzing markets using Hurst’s cyclic principles which is when all the pieces of the puzzle fit into place. It is an “Aha!” moment that removes analysis uncertainty, and suddenly we can see just a bit further into the misty future. Such a moment happened for me when […]


Why the cycle is stretched

The Last Euro Bull 5

Yes, that’s me, the last Euro Bull still standing! Actually that is a misleading title. I am not “still bullish”, but am about to become bullish. It might seem odd for me to be posting bullish thoughts about the Euro considering that yesterday the Euro dropped to its lowest level since July last year, but I […]