CSCO Long Term Hurst Cycles


I believe the $NDX bottom in November was an 18 month and 4.5 year Hurst cycle low. What bothers me of course is the very low volatility observed. However the tech stocks often bottom before the general markets confirm a major low.

The stock of interest is CSCO. I am very bullish this stock, having been a bear on it back in 2010.

I believe CSCO made a 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycle low in 2011. If I am wrong about that, then it came this summer. Either way this stock should outperform its peers and do very well in the coming year.

Here are two possible phasings. One places the major low in late 2011, the other this past summer (2012). I like the 2011 low as a major low because the FLDs are much better aligned (in a downward cascade pattern) for the bullish scenario I see for this stock. The other possibilities are that a straddle occurred to form the recent low (with the 2011 and 2012 lows), or that I am dead wrong and we have not seen the ultimate major low. TWT.

The above chart analysis was run with Sentient Trader and my expert model (shown here).

The other possibility is that the major low occurred this year. This analysis below was generated by Sentient Trader without an expert model.

I went long this stock in November and will be looking to add call options in the coming weeks.

cheers,

john

P.S. Post belongs to SilentOne despite author heading as David Hickson

 

 

 


About David Hickson

I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.

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