I would like to introduce you a new view of the potential important trough the Euro may be doing right now.
This new view is based on my cyclic indicator I’m currently using. First, I think it is better to take a look at these graphs: weekly time frame at the left, daily at the right
I would like to explain a little about what it does and what we see. There are 3 important pieces of information: the channels, the oscillations and the expected time of reversal.
The core of the software is based on displaced moving averages, with this base, channels and oscillations are constructed.
The channels tell us support and resistance, points where we find a nest of channels are of course very important.
Bellow the graph I show you a spectrum of 4 oscillations, from larger to smaller. Normally, the second position (with yellow numbers at the right) corresponds to the dominant cycle of that graph. In this case, at the weekly chart it is shown M: 34, (it must be multiplied by 2) it is 34 x 2 = a 68 weeks oscillation or around 15 months oscillation. At the daily we have M: 27, so, 27 x 2 = 54 trading days or 10 weeks, and so on. The upper channel corresponds to these dominant cycles.
The white blue box indicates a projection of the estimated time of reversal. This box shift in relations to the dominancy, but it may be another discussion.
So, what we are seeing??
The daily channel is pointing downward, with prices sloping with the support channel. All oscillations are in the trough zone. In the weekly, prices are at the channel support and oscillations have just entered into trough zones…. the dominant oscillations for the weekly and daily are, right now, 68 weeks and 10 weeks
If it is the case, EURUSD is forming as much as an 18 month cycle trough.
But, could it be of a longer degree?…. Hard to tell it!!!
Let’s see a monthly graph
In this graph I want to point that the dominancy has shifted from longer cycles to shorter ones, to the 18 month cycle!!. The longer oscillations are flattening, let’s say, loosing personality, dominancy. Hard to say when it would shift again, but the EURUSD could run to the upper channel.
Hope to help!