I want to add a couple of comments about the long term picture to my prior post about the Euro. The chart below is a monthly chart of the EURUSD with the 18 month price wave and 4 year price wave. Except for the minor frequency modulation in the early 2000’s, the 18 month wave has been very consistent for almost twenty years. The long wave at the bottom of the chart averaged a little over 50 months for over four decades prior to beginning of the so-called financial crisis in 2008. Not a perfect 3:1 harmonic relationship, but close enough. However, beginning in 2008, the very large increase in the amplitude of the 18 month wave has caused the 50 month wave to become somewhat distorted making it more difficult to forecast when the next low will occur. A rough estimate can be made by projecting the filter output into the future at the same rate of curvature. Another observation I would like to point out is the fact that the price action has pushed hard down through the bottom of the dominancy envelope which greatly increases the transaction risk of further shorts. The shorter waves mentioned in the prior post should facilitate getting in close to the 18 month low feasible for the nimble trader.