Gold Bugs – pt. 2 12


 

Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window (not shown) this year. Cherry-picking the low should be relatively easy due to the very consistent sub-division of the shorter waves. Have fun!

 

GC ##-## (Weekly)  Week 15_2010 - Week 1_2016


About William Randall

I'm a retired attorney who discovered the fascinating world of the financial markets almost two decades ago. After learning about Hurst, I've spent the last several years honing all the skills necessary to fully implement the techniques he taught.


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12 thoughts on “Gold Bugs – pt. 2

  • Kaverfan

    Dear William,

    Thanks a lot for your great input!

    Do I get it right that we are to post an intermediate (corrective) high soon?

    What would be the projected timeframe for the 8-year cycle low (not seen on this chart)?

    Cheers!

    • William Randall Post author

      The price is currently inside the time window for the 8 year low. A price wave of that length is going to have a very large deviation range. Any 20 week low inside the widow could possibly be the 8 year low. Barring a straddled low, there is a high probability that the 8 year low is in when you see a higher 20 week high. If you buy every 20 week low this year, you are guaranteed to get the 8 year low!

  • SilentOne

    Hi William,
    Hard to pinpoint if we’ve seen the low here for the metals (silver and gold). The miners are not acting well at the moment and a bit too weak to suggest the recent low was it for the metals (miners should be out outfront and leading with a solid rally here IMO). What does your filter show on something like GDX, the US gold miner ETF? I’m watching closely and have some long term positions in the miners already, but nothing too aggressive. The other issue is that silver is sitting on a 13 year trendline, which would be the 14/16 year VTL. Chances are it breaks here soon to confirm that larger cycle low is forming.
    cheers,
    john

    • William Randall Post author

      Hi John,

      I don’t believe the low is in yet for gold. I have not seen any evidence of a change of trend.

      I took a look at GDX per your suggestion. As expected they exhibit the same dominant 20 week price wave. However the miners appear to be much weaker than the spot price of gold. They have already broken below their 2008 low whereas gold is not there yet. In addition the most recent 20 week price wave is trying to invert. The BGMI is highly correlated to the spot price of gold but was in a heavy downtrend the last time I looked at it (9/2015). I would be very cautious on the long side.

  • alain

    Gold Angles 2011-2017

    the trend is always down . Price being UNDER the (1×1) Descending Angle (1 Unit of Price x 1 Unit of Time) (dashed Blue)

  • alain

    Gold Angles 2008-2017

    Trend is down. Price is UNDER the Center of Gravity (Midlle ) of the Fractal of Price – the Horizontal Dashed Line in blue.

    Price follows the Descending (3×4) Angle (3 Units of Price x 4 Units of Time)

  • Kaverfan

    Hello everyone,

    What is your current phazing for the cycles in Gold? Does this break-out to a new high (20-week one?) mean that the 8-year low is likely in already?

    If I get it right, we are to get an intermediary low within 1-2 weeks, from where we climb…

    Thanks for your views!

    • William Randall

      Hi Kaverfan,

      Firstly, the 20 week wave hasn’t put in a new high yet. It is very close though.

      The 8 year wave is a very long wave with a tremendous lag period in the filter. This makes identifying the turning points at now time somewhat difficult. However, with respect to the 20 week wave (or any relatively short wave), I use a couple of techniques to identify if the trend underlying the wave has turned. One approach is to measure the sum of the waves longer than the cycles of interest. The accuracy at now time is still affected by the lag of the filter.

      The other approach I use is a three step process. Firstly, I look for a trend line break on a closing basis, connecting the most recent consecutive highs. This usually occurs first. Secondly, I then look for the price action to close above the prior high. Then finally, for confirmation, I look for a higher low to form. Sometimes you get a trend line break followed by a lower high and higher low. This creates a text-book triangle which you then have to determine if it is a termination or continuation triangle based on your analysis of the longer waves,

      Based on the above paragraph, gold has not satisfied any of those requirements. Keep in mind these parameters are based on a probabilistic approach and are not written on stone tablets. Hope this helps.

      William