Gold probably generates more diverse opinions than any other financial instrument or commodity. The deflationists say gold is going down to $250 while the inflationists say gold is going to $5,000 and beyond. The price action paints a much simpler picture from the cyclical/spectral standpoint. The first chart below is a monthly chart showing what appears to be a dominant eight year price wave. The filter does a good job of identifying both the highs and the lows of that wave. Trying to phase a wave of that length to a particular day at nowtime is an exercise in futility because of the relatively large margin of error due to filter lag. Nevertheless, if one projects the average period from the most recent low in 2008 into the future, the next low of that wave is due sometime in 2016 barring a large duration fluctuation. Additionally, at each of the prior 8 year lows the highpass data exhibited a monthly close below -1.5 average deviation (red horizontal line), indicating the maximum distance the 8 year wave is going to push it (somewhat analogous to an FLD projection but in the spectral domain).
Gold also exhibits some very clear intermediate price waves. The chart below is a weekly chart illustrating two of those waves. The longer wave at the bottom of the chart had a tendency over the last several years to phase to cyclical highs, (yellow arrows), a characteristic that has been discussed recently by other analysts. The shorter wave has been very dominant and consistent over the past seven years. If that dominancy and consistency persists over the next year or so, identifying the window of the next major low should be relatively easy.
There is a caveat to the above analysis. The waves shown, in terms of average period and their harmonic relationship to one another, do not fit into the standard Hurst simple harmonic, time domain model. I do not subscribe to the approach that one size (nominal model) fits all. I analyze each instrument individually to determine the character of the dominant price waves. A standard Hurst analysis of gold using his nominal model should not be that much different.