Note from the author:
Market analysis are based on a probabilistic model. That means I am anticipating higher probability of an event to happen.
For those who think that politics, central banks decisions, war conflicts, etc.; influence future model development I have bad news. I have noticed that more often than not, technical analysis seems to “influence” politics. Many times I expected the market to move one way or the other without knowing the reason why. It is only later that I learn what caused the fall or the rise.
I cannot see clear reasons why Australian currency should make peaks and throughs around dates showed below. The only way I could explain future course of AUD is it perfectly fits Elliot Corrective Wave pattern and break out of “Termination Diagonal” (Wedge). https://twitter.com/Piotr_Walkowsk1/status/639976895510024193
How to plan your Holidays using Advanced Market Analysis
Pictures below show Hurst Model of AUD/USD.
My wife asked me recently “Honey -When is it the best time to go to visit Washington?”.
I do not know “The Best” time, but I can anticipate when it would be the worst time to go. To find out a good time for Australian Currency I can use two additional Hurst methods. One of them is VLT (Valid Trend Line) which shows that the peak of a cycle of a larger degree already occurred. The other one is FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) which works on the principle of Centred Moving Average shifted forward in phase (not shown).
I also support my analysis by classic RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Connie Brown “De-trended Momentum Oscillator”.
It is easy to notice that in the short term there is a possibility of Accumulation pattern to develop on AUD/USD due to underlying trend going upward and momentum on weekly charts peaking.
That is when I would seek confirmation of short cycle like 80 days, 10 weeks or 20 weeks to peak and on that confirmation, I would pre-pay my Travel Visa Foreign Currency card and book all needed accommodation.
My wife once said that using Technical Analysis to play Stock Market is useless. Now I understand she was right!
Technical Analysis should be used to build models in Real Life.
Regardless of which tools we use, it is always nice to be able to predict with a certain probability, which year is the best to go abroad and which year is best for trekking glaciers in New Zealand.
By Piotr Walkowski