How to plan your Holidays using Advanced Market Analysis 4


Note from the author:

Market analysis are based on a probabilistic model. That means I am anticipating higher probability of an event to happen.

For those who think that politics, central banks decisions, war conflicts, etc.; influence future model development I have bad news. I have noticed that more often than not, technical analysis seems to “influence” politics. Many times I expected the market to move one way or the other without knowing the reason why. It is only later that I learn what caused the fall or the rise.

I cannot see clear reasons why Australian currency should make peaks and throughs around dates showed below. The only way I could explain future course of AUD is it perfectly fits Elliot Corrective Wave pattern and break out of “Termination Diagonal” (Wedge). https://twitter.com/Piotr_Walkowsk1/status/639976895510024193

 

How to plan your Holidays using Advanced Market Analysis

 

Pictures below show Hurst Model of AUD/USD.

My wife asked me recently “Honey -When is it the best time to go to visit Washington?”.

I do not know “The Best” time, but I can anticipate when it would be the worst time to go. To find out a good time for Australian Currency I can use two additional Hurst methods. One of them is VLT (Valid Trend Line) which shows that the peak of a cycle of a larger degree already occurred. The other one is FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) which works on the principle of Centred Moving Average shifted forward in phase (not shown).

AUD/USD Monthly

AUD/USD Weekly

I also support my analysis by classic RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Connie Brown “De-trended Momentum Oscillator”.

It is easy to notice that in the short term there is a possibility of Accumulation pattern to develop on AUD/USD due to underlying trend going upward and momentum on weekly charts peaking.
That is when I would seek confirmation of short cycle like 80 days, 10 weeks or 20 weeks to peak and on that confirmation, I would pre-pay my Travel Visa Foreign Currency card and book all needed accommodation.

My wife once said that using Technical Analysis to play Stock Market is useless. Now I understand she was right!

Technical Analysis should be used to build models in Real Life.

Regardless of which tools we use, it is always nice to be able to predict with a certain probability, which year is the best to go abroad and which year is best for trekking glaciers in New Zealand.

By Piotr Walkowski


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4 thoughts on “How to plan your Holidays using Advanced Market Analysis

  • Max

    Sorry for my stupidity, but do you go on holiday during peaks and troughs, or runs in between? Could you confirm the dates for holiday as per the Audusd chart above?
    Best regards,

    • Piotr Walkowski Post author

      This is not a silly question at all.
      I go on holidays the same as any other people do, except I choose my holiday destination accordingly to Hurst cycles.
      I expect the Australian dollar to peak at the end of 2017, then fall towards 2022-2023 and make historical high afterward.
      This is however only a forecast. Hurst Cycles the same as any other analysis use PAST data to estimate the future. Market analysts create higher probability models. Even if the probability is 75% there still is 1 in 4 chances that something else will happen.

      It would be good if you learn Hurst Cycles and Elliot Wave. It looks difficult only at the beginning.
      At my Twitter profile, you can find a historical reference for AUD/USD Elliot Wave count.
      https://twitter.com/Piotr_Walkowsk1
      Make as well Gold (XAU/USD) analysis. You will notice that Gold price and Australian Dollar are closely related.

      I wrote that article to show that Hurst Cycles can be used in Project Planning or even the Governance. At this moment companies (and governments) respond only to what is happening.
      They should be prepared to what may happen. It costs much less to have a contingency plan than respond unprepared to a disaster or to lose an opportunity.

      Please do not rely solemnly on other people’s analysis. Make your own and compare with others. Find a team of people and work together. As a group, you will make much better decisions.

      Regards,
      Piotr Walkowski

  • David@TradingHurst

    Nice post this Piotr.

    On a shorter timescale I have found that one can preempt fundamental announcements using Hurst quite well. There were two outstanding examples recently on the EURUSD. Super mario was expected to be dovish back in the December meeting but, as Hurst Analysts, we were ready for a 40 week bounce..and that is exactly what happened, very strongly infact – confounding the ‘experts’.

    I disagree slightly with this comment : ‘Hurst Cycles the same as any other analysis use PAST data to estimate the future’. In my view the spectrascopic approach taken by Hurst is more analogous to the spectrascopic profile of light, as an example. Is the spectrascopic profile of light a historical measurement or is it a natural constant?

    Cheers

    • Piotr Walkowski

      I agree with David. Hurst Cycles are based on natural constant. In this case, it is the Nominal Model.
      I wanted to say that we should update our analysis regularly with incoming data. We cannot rely only on our past analysis.
      I think about the market forecast in a similar fashion to the weather forecast.
      This is Science, not a crystal ball.
      If you look at the chart below you will notice both cyclic patterns and “turbulent” patterns.

      This is a natural development. It is obvious that 6 months after cold winter bottom there will be hot summer “peak”.
      A similar characteristic is used in the Hurst Cycles. There are two Hurst principles I based my forecast about Australian Dollar.
      • Principle of Synchronicity (Waves cause simultaneous troughs)
      • Principle of Harmonicity (Longer cycles tend to be multiples of shorter cycles usually by two)
      Although I had available only a fraction of historical data, I still could develop AUD forecast 50 years in advance. That is what makes Hurst Cycles method unique.

      Hurst deals with “price” and time. Even more, instead of a price I could use is to forecast amount of houses build in Sydney or Melbourne and find when to expect a contraction in building activity.
      Cycles are however not perfectly symmetrical. I refer to Cycles in Nature, not only Hurst.
      The hottest month in Warsaw is June. Did you expect the coldest month to be December???
      I will disappoint you. The coldest month in Warsaw is February, and even that varies from time to time.
      That is why it is so important to work with the model, but the same time to respond to incoming data.