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Profitable trading results from accurate analysis
Cycle events provide targets for price moves
Price moves within the cycle channels
The Future Line of Demarcation is a powerful cyclic tool
Cycles move in real time, including over the weekends
Trend Lines which are validated for cyclic reasons
Hurst's diamond notation clearly shows the position of cycle troughs
JM Hurst was an American engineer who, in the 1960s and 70s, was the first researcher to use the power of the modern computer to investigate cycles in the financial markets. JM Hurst is widely recognized ...
Read more »An analysis performed according to Hurst’s Cyclic Principles is called a phasing analysis because it involves working out what the phase is of each cycle influencing the market. A phasing analysis ...
Read more »The purpose of analyzing a financial market (apart from the satisfying warm fuzzy feeling that performing a good analysis gives you) is to make profitable trading decisions. These posts specifically relate ...
Read more »Although certainly not conclusive, I believe we are several days away from finding out whether the 20 week cycle is dominant and at this point it certainly looks like it may be. A head and shoulder formation has been forming and if the neckline is broken that would certainly put an end to the 40 […]
There has been a lot of interesting discussion over the past several weeks concerning the cyclical state of the market. Most of the commentary has been based on what I refer to as the trough synchronized, simple harmonic relationship, time domain approach to cyclical analysis. I thought I would take this opportunity to throw my […]
Note from the author: Market analysis are based on a probabilistic model. That means I am anticipating higher probability of an event to happen. For those who think that politics, central banks decisions, war conflicts, etc.; influence future model development I have bad news. I have noticed that more often than not, technical analysis seems […]
One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles I am working with are […]
Note from author: Writing this article, I have never had in mind to show an exact development of US markets, but one of the possible scenarios. I use Technical Analysis as a tool to screen for risks and opportunities. Instead having thousands of possibilities, I narrow my pool of scenarios to a few of them. […]
Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, I am surprised at its […]
One of the results of the way in which cycles combine to influence financial markets is something Hurst called the “Mid-Channel Pause”. The mid-channel pause is, as the name implies, a pause in price movement which occurs “mid-channel”. But you don’t need to construct any channels in order to identify the mid-channel pause. It is simple […]
Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window (not shown) this year. Cherry-picking […]
The last 12-18 months in the U.S. stock indices have been somewhat challenging for both the technical trader and the fundamental investor. The yearly chart of the S$P 500 below shows that 2015 was a rare down year. That chart also provides one with a great perspective of the intermediate and long term trend of […]
The Envelope Nominal Model The system use 3 different Envelopes (sometimes 4) based on a Centered Moving Average to which I add or substract a fixed value which is a « Gann’s Octave » or a subdivision of the said Octave. The nominal “model” (average, theoretical) I use is based on 32, 128 and 256 Trading Days […]
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.
