USD Index Long Term Cycles 13

One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles I am working with are […]

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DJI Triangle_2

Bulls Vs. Bears The War Is On

Note from author:  Writing this article, I have never had in mind to show an exact development of US markets, but one of the possible scenarios. I use Technical Analysis as a tool to screen for risks and opportunities. Instead having thousands of possibilities, I narrow my pool of scenarios to a few of them. […]


Gold Peak coming? 20

Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, I am surprised at its […]

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The mid-channel pause

The Perfect Mid-Channel Pause 5

One of the results of the way in which cycles combine to influence financial markets is something Hurst called the “Mid-Channel Pause”. The mid-channel pause is, as the name implies, a pause in price movement which occurs “mid-channel”. But you don’t need to construct any channels in order to identify the mid-channel pause. It is simple […]


Gold Bugs – pt. 2 12

  Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window (not shown) this year. Cherry-picking […]

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ES 03-16 (1440 Min)  1_7_2016

S&P 500 – Not for the feint of heart

The last 12-18 months in the U.S. stock indices have been somewhat challenging for both the technical trader and the fundamental investor. The yearly chart of the S$P 500 below shows that 2015 was a rare down year. That chart also provides one with a great perspective of the intermediate and long term trend of […]


Using Hurst Dominancy Envelopes 19

The Envelope Nominal Model The system use 3 different Envelopes (sometimes 4) based on a Centered Moving Average to which I add or substract a fixed value which is a «  Gann’s Octave » or a subdivision of the said Octave. The nominal “model” (average, theoretical) I use is based on 32, 128 and 256 Trading Days […]

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Revisiting the Nominal Model. 16

It has now been about 45 years since J M Hurst first discovered a nominal model in cycles. That time period alone should make us wonder if it is still the same today. Perhaps if you’re talking about the monument at Mount Rushmore, you should expect little change at all. But the markets are in […]


The Big Bounce 6

Before we look at the markets, have you joined us in the Hurst Trading Room live webinars? They are a lot of fun, and the feedback has been that they are proving very useful, so please join us this Monday: register here. In my last post I discussed some possibilities for the August 2015 trough, including one […]

A B-category interaction with the FLD?

A bearish picture

A Cautionary Tale 7

For some time now I have been observing bearish “cracks” appearing in the stock markets, and I have become that irritating analyst who keeps on pointing out the negative. But the speed of the drop in August took me by surprise. I was expecting the symmetry that I discussed in this post to break down […]