Revisiting the 7 Year Cycle 10

Although certainly not conclusive, I believe we are several days away from finding out whether the 20 week cycle is dominant and at this point it certainly looks like it may be. A head and shoulder formation has been forming and if the neckline is broken that would certainly put an end to the 40 […]



S&P 500 – CycleWars : The Amplitude Awakens 7

There has been a lot of interesting discussion over the past several weeks concerning the cyclical state of the market. Most of the commentary has been based on what I refer to as the trough synchronized, simple harmonic relationship, time domain approach to cyclical analysis. I thought I would take this opportunity to throw my […]

How to plan your Holidays using Advanced Market Analysis 4

Note from the author: Market analysis are based on a probabilistic model. That means I am anticipating higher probability of an event to happen. For those who think that politics, central banks decisions, war conflicts, etc.; influence future model development I have bad news. I have noticed that more often than not, technical analysis seems […]



USD Index Long Term Cycles 13

One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles I am working with are […]

Bulls Vs. Bears The War Is On

Note from author:  Writing this article, I have never had in mind to show an exact development of US markets, but one of the possible scenarios. I use Technical Analysis as a tool to screen for risks and opportunities. Instead having thousands of possibilities, I narrow my pool of scenarios to a few of them. […]

DJI Triangle_2


Gold Peak coming? 20

Gold is rallying very hard here off the late 2015 lows along with the gold miners. Is this the start of a new gold bull and a persistent rise as we saw from the 2000/2001 lows? Good question. While I had anticipated a rally to start soon in precious metals, I am surprised at its […]

The Perfect Mid-Channel Pause 7

One of the results of the way in which cycles combine to influence financial markets is something Hurst called the “Mid-Channel Pause”. The mid-channel pause is, as the name implies, a pause in price movement which occurs “mid-channel”. But you don’t need to construct any channels in order to identify the mid-channel pause. It is simple […]

The mid-channel pause


Gold Bugs – pt. 2 12

  Gold continues to be one of the easier commodities on the board to trade using Hurst’s methodology. The weekly chart below shows a series of lower 20 week highs dating back to the 2011 high. The price will enter the leading edge of its 8 year cycle low window (not shown) this year. Cherry-picking […]

S&P 500 – Not for the feint of heart

The last 12-18 months in the U.S. stock indices have been somewhat challenging for both the technical trader and the fundamental investor. The yearly chart of the S$P 500 below shows that 2015 was a rare down year. That chart also provides one with a great perspective of the intermediate and long term trend of […]

ES 03-16 (1440 Min)  1_7_2016


Using Hurst Dominancy Envelopes 21

The Envelope Nominal Model The system use 3 different Envelopes (sometimes 4) based on a Centered Moving Average to which I add or substract a fixed value which is a «  Gann’s Octave » or a subdivision of the said Octave. The nominal “model” (average, theoretical) I use is based on 32, 128 and 256 Trading Days […]