Comparison DJIA to NASDAQ 71 years later 21

This is a comparison that I did some years ago. David asked about Kondratieff cycle now. I think the correct cycles to look at for stock market are 71 year, 35.5 year etc. This shows why.

267511

Ray Tomes and Harmonics Theory 4

David Hickson has kindly invited me to join Hurst cycles once again. For those that don’t know me, I am a long time student of cycles and run the Cycles Research Institute web site at http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/ while my personal website is http://ray.tomes.biz/ and I have lots of videos on cycles in YouTube under the Wobbly […]


Moving on to the next cycle 4

I am so accustomed to the cycle trader’s approach of always looking ahead to the next event that I sometimes forget to “finish the story” and tie up the loose ends. For the past few months I have been writing about when to expect the 40-week cycle trough. That trough has now occurred, almost exactly on […]

Perfect symmetry

FLD peak = Price trough

A July Trough? 1

I wrote recently about the 40-week cycle trough that I am expecting to form soon. At that time I expected the trough to occur either early June 2015, or mid-July 2015, with the latter my preferred option. The market tantalizingly formed a trough in early June, but in my opinion that was most probably a […]


S&P 500 – Back on track, but … 18

The S&P 500 seems to have weathered the frequency modulation that has plagued the index for the past several months from a spectral viewpoint. Below is a daily chart with the 40 day wave extracted at the bottom. The effect of the frequency modulation is clearly visible in the first four months of this year, […]

26553

The offending spike

Beware The FLD Spike 5

You are probably aware of the fact that I find the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) a very useful tool. My research (which is a kinder word than obsession) into why the FLD sometimes provides support or resistance instead of being crossed cleanly by price gave rise to the FLD Trading Strategy. One of the […]


When To Expect The 40-week Trough 4

The US markets squeezed up to new highs over the past week, reminding me why I always treat the “confirmation of a peak” information provided by a VTL cross with a small dose of skepticism (see this post about the breaching of the 20-week VTL). The next cycle event that I am looking out for […]

204 days

262631

S&P 500 – What’s next? 3

Over the last few weeks the S&P 500, on the surface, has the appearance of being somewhat difficult to analyze and trade. However, if one digs beneath the surface just slightly and brings along a firm understanding of cyclic principles as promulgated by Hurst, the picture is much clearer.   Below is a daily chart […]


An Important FLD 4

I know that I tend to bang on a bit about the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), but it is an extraordinarily important line. When I saw this tweet on Wednesday I knew that we were at an important level in the markets: To understand just how important, here is a chart showing that the 40-week […]

Two years of support

Watch this level

Time To Turn – S&P 500 6

Last week I discussed the implication of the 20-week VTL breach in the S&P 500: That we have seen the peak of the current 40-week cycle in the markets. VTL’s are not as reliable as FLD’s in my experience, but it has been interesting to watch the S&P 500 reach up towards a new peak […]