A Cautionary Tale 7

For some time now I have been observing bearish “cracks” appearing in the stock markets, and I have become that irritating analyst who keeps on pointing out the negative. But the speed of the drop in August took me by surprise. I was expecting the symmetry that I discussed in this post to break down […]

A bearish picture

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Comparison DJIA to NASDAQ 71 years later 21

This is a comparison that I did some years ago. David asked about Kondratieff cycle now. I think the correct cycles to look at for stock market are 71 year, 35.5 year etc. This shows why.


Ray Tomes and Harmonics Theory 4

David Hickson has kindly invited me to join Hurst cycles once again. For those that don’t know me, I am a long time student of cycles and run the Cycles Research Institute web site at http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/ while my personal website is http://ray.tomes.biz/ and I have lots of videos on cycles in YouTube under the Wobbly […]


Perfect symmetry

Moving on to the next cycle 4

I am so accustomed to the cycle trader’s approach of always looking ahead to the next event that I sometimes forget to “finish the story” and tie up the loose ends. For the past few months I have been writing about when to expect the 40-week cycle trough. That trough has now occurred, almost exactly on […]


A July Trough? 1

I wrote recently about the 40-week cycle trough that I am expecting to form soon. At that time I expected the trough to occur either early June 2015, or mid-July 2015, with the latter my preferred option. The market tantalizingly formed a trough in early June, but in my opinion that was most probably a […]

FLD peak = Price trough

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S&P 500 – Back on track, but … 18

The S&P 500 seems to have weathered the frequency modulation that has plagued the index for the past several months from a spectral viewpoint. Below is a daily chart with the 40 day wave extracted at the bottom. The effect of the frequency modulation is clearly visible in the first four months of this year, […]


Beware The FLD Spike 5

You are probably aware of the fact that I find the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) a very useful tool. My research (which is a kinder word than obsession) into why the FLD sometimes provides support or resistance instead of being crossed cleanly by price gave rise to the FLD Trading Strategy. One of the […]

The offending spike

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When To Expect The 40-week Trough 4

The US markets squeezed up to new highs over the past week, reminding me why I always treat the “confirmation of a peak” information provided by a VTL cross with a small dose of skepticism (see this post about the breaching of the 20-week VTL). The next cycle event that I am looking out for […]


S&P 500 – What’s next? 3

Over the last few weeks the S&P 500, on the surface, has the appearance of being somewhat difficult to analyze and trade. However, if one digs beneath the surface just slightly and brings along a firm understanding of cyclic principles as promulgated by Hurst, the picture is much clearer.   Below is a daily chart […]

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Two years of support

An Important FLD 4

I know that I tend to bang on a bit about the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), but it is an extraordinarily important line. When I saw this tweet on Wednesday I knew that we were at an important level in the markets: To understand just how important, here is a chart showing that the 40-week […]