In January I suggested that we had seen a contracted 4.5 Hurst cycle in Nov. 2012 for the US markets (eg. $SPX) and that based on price action seen in the 70s and 80s, we should look for a straddle trough to form for the current 18 month cycle. I will defer first to the NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) to show where 40 week Hurst cycles likely occurred since the 2011 bottom. Hurst 40 week cycle lows occurred Oct. 2011, June 2012, Nov. 2012 and most likely late August 2013. This suggests that cycles started to expand in the first 18 month cycle off the Nov. 2012 low.
My preferred phasing is then as follows where Nov. 2012 is a contracted 4.5 year Hurst cycle trough and late August 2013 was a 40 week Hurst low. I suggested in Jan. that we would see a Hurst 20 week low and I believe that cycle is now at its peak. We should decline from here into an 18 month Hurst cycle low. This decline will probably not be your garden variety correction in a bull market. With contracted cycles as we’ve seen, markets tend to get far ahead of themselves. The examples I showed in January’s post suggest that the $SPX could retrace almost all of last year’s trading into the coming 18 month trough.
Having a look at the daily cycles, we likely saw a 5 week low on March 14th and as this 10 week cycle rolls over, we should learn how strong the coming decline is likely to be. The next 10 week Hurst low is due by mid-April and I expect price to break below the level seen at the 20 week low of Feb. 5th. If this type of cycle failure occurs, we are likely to see a very large monthly down bar in April as this correction progresses.
The bigger question is what to expect from the coming 18 month low? If a severe correction does occur here in the next few weeks, we will likely see a bear market take hold into the 9 year Hurst cycle low.
And here’s an interesting fact. Did you know that the $SPX rally in the last five years was greater (point wise) than that from 1994 to 2000?