The Next 18 Month Hurst Cycle 4


So here we are with new highs in the $SPX, $NDX, and the DOW. Even the $Nikkei has flashed new highs thanks to the BOJ’s aggressive QE announcement last week. Many world indices continue to lag though such as the $DAX and commodity heavy markets like the $TSX. It is easy to spot where the money is flowing. It is going straight into the USD and US related equities, a trend that seems unstoppable.

When we see this type of price action so late into larger cycle periods, one wonders if cycles actually matter. Central Banks world wide have had their way with monetary easing and there seems to be no end to it. Now that the US midterm election is out of the way, everyone is probably watching Mario Draghi and his comments tonight.

So with new highs, one has to conclude that we saw an 18 month cycle low here in October, with the actual cycle period running almost 16 months. We are only 4 weeks up into this new cycle. How right translated can this 9 year cycle extend? I have no preconceived ideas of what these markets will do from here. Each time you expect cycles to turn somewhat bearish, CBs step in to goose the markets.

SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_monthly_2014-11-05

Perhaps the only thing to keep in mind for now is that a 9 year Hurst cycle low (actual cycle period is expected to run approx. 7 years) is due late 2015 into 2016. How we get there is hard to see. I wonder how active CBs will be with QE from here through 2015.

SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_weekly_2014-11-05

cheers,

john


About SilentOne

I am a retired Chemical Engineer. I became a house dad back in 2000 and then devoted all my free time to the markets. After years of technical analysis study I decided upon Hurst cycles, which has been my primary method since 2007.


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4 thoughts on “The Next 18 Month Hurst Cycle