Yearly Archives: 2012

The US markets dipped a little lower this week, and formed a trough that seemed at first to be an insignificant trough for the 80-day cycle trough that we have been expecting. But then on Thursday they leapt upwards to new highs in a dramatic move that makes the 80-day […]

The US markets are in the process of forming a peak of nine-month magnitude and last week we identified the peak of Tuesday 21 August 2012 as a likely candidate for the actual peak in the S&P 500. This week the markets did nothing to suggest that we should reconsider […]

On Tuesday (21 August 2012) the US markets made new highs intraday, (relative to the peaks formed earlier this year), but by the end of the day prices had started a strong move downwards which continued until Friday morning (24 August). The result was that a new closing high was […]

The US markets are poised for a reversal to the downside. Our analysis has been looking towards this peak ever since the identification of the 40-week cycle trough on 4 June 2012. Peaks are notoriously complicated when analyzing the markets according to Hurst’s Cyclic Principles because of the principle that […]

There are some weeks when the markets seem peaceful, benign even. Those are times when I become extra cautious, because they seem to me like the calm before a storm. We have been expecting a peak in the US markets and as they struggled upwards on waning volume this week […]

One of the most common misconceptions that we cling to when trying to understand financial markets is that news events cause the price movements of those financial markets. As a cyclic analyst I attribute price movements to the “cycles” (what those cycles actually are is open to debate, but the […]

There are only eight Hurst Cyclic Principles that define the way in which financial markets are influenced by cycles. Each one of these principles is important in defining the Hurst Cycle approach to analyzing a market, but one of the principles always strikes me as more important than the others, […]

Perhaps one of the greatest “a-ha” moments for me (and I’m not talking about the Norwegian band – I was going to use the word “epiphanies” but that sounded a bit religious) … one of the greatest “a-ha” moments in understanding Hurst’s cyclic principles came when I realized the importance of […]

The greatest benefit of analyzing financial markets according to cyclic principles is the insight that it provides in terms of what to expect and when to expect it. Sometimes the market suprises us, and sometimes of course our analysis is wrong, but a good deal of the time the markets […]

In a conversation with an experienced Hurst analyst (and long-term Sentient Trader user) this week he mentioned that he was feeling bullish “following the current pullback”. I agreed, but later found myself questioning the extent of my bullishness, and realized that I’d missed the opportunity to engage in a “Hurst debate” […]