The small caps, as evidenced by the Russell 2000, continue to show relative weakness with respect to the large caps, evidenced by the S&P 500. While the DOW and the S&P 500 recently hit new daily closing highs, the Nasdaq and the Russell haven’t seen new highs in ten weeks. […]
Yearly Archives: 2014
52 posts
Hello all After reading this excellent post by David, “20 Week Cycle Dominance – 2 May 2014” , I want to share with you some ideas running in my head for some time about the “dominant cycle” and about what I mean when I believe that a particular cycle oscillation is almost […]
Over the past three months the US indices have exhibited a rather marked divergence in relative strength. This is particularly evident in the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100. The chart below is a daily chart of the Russell futures. The price wave shown at the bottom of the chart […]
There has been a lot of discussion recently about whether the cycles are “running short” relative to Hurst’s nominal model. The answer to that question depends on one’s definition of nominal model. A little discussed fact is that Hurst created two nominal models, a nominal time domain model (54 months,18 […]
Last week I discussed (on the Sentient Trader blog) why it was time for a bounce in the US stock markets, and they obliged this week with a strong move up. The cyclic analyst must always look ahead to the next move, and as markets make new highs (albeit in […]
I’ve been given the privilege to share some of my insights and experience with the use of bandpass filters in applying the Hurst methods. Instead of a long winded dissertation, I thought it best to begin with an example. The chart below is a daily chart of Russell 2000 futures. […]
In January I suggested that we had seen a contracted 4.5 Hurst cycle in Nov. 2012 for the US markets (eg. $SPX) and that based on price action seen in the 70s and 80s, we should look for a straddle trough to form for the current 18 month cycle. I […]
Hello all I’ve been kindly asked by the ST team to reproduce my comments in the Hurst Signals’ chat over the US SP500 index whereby I introduce the long term picture down to the recent price action, here they are: I’m currently on extreme alert due to a potential major, […]
Last week I discussed when we might expect a peak, and drew the conclusion that it was coming soon. It came slightly sooner than I expected as this week the US markets failed to get above last Friday’s high. Those few days have turned the current cycle shape more bearish than the […]
On Friday I wrote about when we might expect a peak in the US markets. The next obvious question is: when do we know that the peak has occurred? It is all very well expecting a peak, but if the market begins to fall there is the danger of calling “PEAK” […]