One of the more difficult aspects of cyclical analysis in my opinion is correctly dealing with price wave expansion or contraction in a timely manner. If one waits long enough the difficulty will usually resolve itself in an additional cycle. However if the price wave in question is of intermediate length, […]
Analysis
108 posts
2015 is shaping up to be an exciting year. The Gannologists are expecting a 25-30% advance in the market due to this being the “5th year of ascension.” Robert Prechter and the Ellioticians are still looking for the elusive “Grand Super-Cycle Peak” which will usher in a catastrophic decline in […]
In early February I suggested that the 20-week cycle trough had formed early, implying new highs in the S&P 500. We have seen new highs since then, and the 20-week trough seems likely to have occurred at the beginning of February 2015. In November 2014 I forecast an expected time […]
I want to add a couple of comments about the long term picture to my prior post about the Euro. The chart below is a monthly chart of the EURUSD with the 18 month price wave and 4 year price wave. Except for the minor frequency modulation in the early […]
In a comment to an earlier post ( Market And Manipulation) I expressed the opinion that some of Hurst’s principles are applied differently with respect to forex pairs. The current analysis of the EURUSD is a good example. The generally accepted approach is to phase the waves at the lows […]
I have been watching the Euro (see also this post) for signs that the big magnitude trough that I am expecting to form has occurred. In September 2014 I wrote about this trough, and mentioned the difficulty with the sub-division of the 54-month cycle. This makes it very difficult to […]
I wrote about the $TSX in September as it broke the 40 week FLD. The TSX started its correction lower last fall before US markets, this on the back of a very weak energy sector. Despite oil’s recent bounce (/CL made a 45 week low late Jan.), the weakness in […]
Gold probably generates more diverse opinions than any other financial instrument or commodity. The deflationists say gold is going down to $250 while the inflationists say gold is going to $5,000 and beyond. The price action paints a much simpler picture from the cyclical/spectral standpoint. The first chart below is […]
As any trough is approached in the markets I always like to stand by in anticipation of that trough, in case it happens early. Troughs occur early in bull markets, and we have been in a bull market for some time, so expecting an early trough has been a useful […]
I am often asked “In what markets do Hurst Cycles work best?” I have always answered that Hurst Cycles work equally well in any liquid, well-traded market. But I now qualify that statement, by adding: ” … to the extent that it is not being manipulated”. The word manipulation generally has […]