$SPX Hurst Coming 40 Week Low 3


Markets continue to defy gravity and any and all predictions for a correction, a dip, a pullback etc. I misread the significance of the Feb. low (clearly an 18 month low) and now we watch for the formation of the coming 40 week low. I’ve been busy with other things so my market work has taken a back seat. I’ve downloaded the new Sentient version and thought I would do a quick update.

The chart below shows the Feb. low as an 18 month low which I have pinned. Sentient is undecided on placing the first 20 week low after that. In my opinion it arrived during May and looking at the 18 month FLD, it gives me some confidence that this was the case. The coming 40 week low should finish by mid-September and the decline into this low can start any time, with an actual low arriving from mid-August to mid-September. The 18 month cycle has been very regular at 14 months +/- 1 month, while the last two 40 week cycles have been 32 weeks exactly. Let’s see what we get late summer.

While I had been looking for an intermediate top this year, it doesn’t look like it will come until very late in the year. The 9 year FLD has an outstanding target of roughly 2150 on the $SPX. Given how bullish these markets have been and how right translated this 9 year cycle is presenting itself, there can be little doubt that this target will be achieved. So a new high will be reached after the coming 40 week low and then we plot our way to the next target. See you in a few weeks time.

cheers,

john

SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_daily_2014-07-30


About SilentOne

I am a retired Chemical Engineer. I became a house dad back in 2000 and then devoted all my free time to the markets. After years of technical analysis study I decided upon Hurst cycles, which has been my primary method since 2007.


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3 thoughts on “$SPX Hurst Coming 40 Week Low

  • Doc

    Hello John,
    Good to see you back posting. Right after you posted the market started a nice decline. I am also looking for a 40 week low most likely between the first and second weeks of September. Let’s see how it unfolds.
    Cheers,
    Doc

  • dowdeva

    John,

    I have a 5 week low at the third week of June, and the most recent one, last week. It came in early at 7 weeks, which means there should be a significant rally out of this last low. It will be interesting to see how that correlates with your upcoming 40 week low.

    I find the 5 week cycle the easiest one to see clearly the last few months.

    I still maintain that Airedale’s phasing may be correct and that the August low in 2007 was a 4.5 year low and that the low in 2008/9 was a cycle straddle to end all cycle straddles. The sustained rally out of that low seems to support that hypothesis. If this is true, the last 4.5 year low was in late 2011, and we will see the next 4.5 year low as early as fall/winter of next 2015, or as late as spring of 2016. My phasing is a little rough, I know.

    Lisa

    • SilentOne Post author

      Hi Lisa and Doc,

      The nominal low for the 40 week Hurst cycle has probably been seen in early August. I say this looking at internal market measures and the fact that some indices have made new recent highs. However, this price low did arrive early and I would expect a retracement of 50 – 62% of this current 10 week cycle once a high is made. We’ve seen similar price action in the last few 40 week low occasions. A retracement should complete by early October so I would expect an uneven month of September. Once this current 10 week low is in, a long trade for the current 40 week cycle seems a good bet. A blowoff move above $SPX 2000 seems likely in the coming quarter. The 9 year FLD target of $SPX 2150ish still stands.

      Lisa, for the larger cycles, I stay to my phasing that the 2009 low was an important long term low involving the 4.5, 9, and 18 year cycle lows, and most likely a 36 year cycle if it exists. The challenge will be to side step the coming 9 year cycle low as that is almost certain to produce a terrific market slide. I won’t attempt to make predictions how we approach that low, having been greatly humbled by markets this year. I also feel that the FED’s influence will continue to distort markets much the same way as in 2006 – 2007 period. What comes after the euphoria won’t be pretty.

      cheers,

      john