One of the most enduring, if not the most enduring, trends in the financial markets has been the run of the 30 year US Treasury bond. From its low in September 1981, T-Bond have been on a relentless 35 year uptrend, almost linear in nature. The chart below is a monthly chart of […]
Yearly Archives: 2016
15 posts
We started as a blog … and now we have a forum! The great thing about a forum is that everyone can contribute. It is truly a community experience. I receive emails every day with ideas, analysis considerations and suggestions for trading. I’ve felt so honored, and selfish to have […]
In February this year I was studying a long swing trade for natural gas (/NG Henry Hub). Here is an email I shared with David Hickson and some others privately: I would like your opinion on a trade I am studying. I know you will think it crazy to […]
Just wanted to pass along the 7 year cycle analysis as I see it evolving. What has changed recently is that the February low has been assigned as a 7 year low which suggest that price keeps moving higher over all from here. The 40 week low is expected near […]
Now that the U.S. stock indices have gotten past the distortion in the charts caused by the fundamental interaction of the Brexit vote, they seem to be settling down back into their normal (?) cyclical patterns. The 4 year price wave has formed a low for the umpteenth time according […]
Every trader on the planet is well aware of the events of the last three trading days. An interesting point David espoused in his webinar today was the question as to what extent does a “fundamental interaction” affect the cyclical nature of the market. He felt that they are insignificant […]
Although certainly not conclusive, I believe we are several days away from finding out whether the 20 week cycle is dominant and at this point it certainly looks like it may be. A head and shoulder formation has been forming and if the neckline is broken that would certainly put […]
There has been a lot of interesting discussion over the past several weeks concerning the cyclical state of the market. Most of the commentary has been based on what I refer to as the trough synchronized, simple harmonic relationship, time domain approach to cyclical analysis. I thought I would take […]
Note from the author: Market analysis are based on a probabilistic model. That means I am anticipating higher probability of an event to happen. For those who think that politics, central banks decisions, war conflicts, etc.; influence future model development I have bad news. I have noticed that more often […]
One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status. Currencies and gold work off amazingly similar cycles and thus three closely related instruments are gold, the USD Index and the CADUSD pair (Canadian Dollar). The cycles […]